College basketball power rankings: Miami no longer a March Madness secret, red-hot Pittsburgh arrives

This week’s Hey Nineteen begins with a viewing guide. Saturday brings the seventh iteration of the NCAA March Madness Men’s Bracket Preview special, which will air on CBS at 12:30 p.m. ET. Immediately after, I’ll interview selection chair Chris Reynolds (Bradley’s athletic director) on CBS Sports HQ. The selection committee, which is meeting in person right now in the lead-up to Saturday’s top-16 unveiling, will go through the exact same deliberations again in less than three weeks when it meets for the real deal in fielding the 68-team bracket. 

This show has proven to be an exercise in reliable forecasting at the top, and thankfully it’s only a one-time thing. (College football’s weekly dedication to the concept is actually a negative.) Each year since the show’s inception (2020 being the obvious exception), one of the No. 1 seeds from February or March went on to win the national title. And without fail, three of the four top seeds in February held their position on Selection Sunday. 

Here’s a scan of how February fed into March at the top of the bracket over the past seven years:

2017

Early No. 1 seeds: Villanova, Kansas, Baylor and Gonzaga
Actual No. 1 seeds: Villanova, Kansas, Gonzaga and North Carolina
National champion: North Carolina 

2018

Early No. 1 seeds: Virginia, Villanova, Xavier and Purdue
Actual No. 1 seeds: Virginia, Villanova, Xavier and Kansas
National champion: Villanova

2019

Early No. 1 seeds: Duke, Virginia, Tennessee and Gonzaga
Actual No. 1 seeds: Duke, Virginia, Gonzaga and North Carolina
National champion: Virginia

2020

Early No. 1 projected seeds: Baylor, Kansas, Gonzaga and San Diego State
Actual No. 1 seeds: No tournament (Baylor, Kansas, Gonzaga, Dayton were projected Nos. 1)
National champion: No tournament

2021

Early No. 1 projected seeds: Gonzaga, Baylor, Michigan and Ohio State
Actual No. 1 seeds: Gonzaga, Baylor, Michigan and Illinois
National champion: Baylor 

2022

Early No. 1 projected seeds: Gonzaga, Auburn, Arizona, Kansas
Actual No. 1 seeds: Gonzaga, Arizona, Kansas, Baylor
National champion: Kansas

Purdue, Alabama, Kansas and Houston are poised to be 1-seeds on Saturday, and it feels close to a lock that at least three of those schools will be perched just as high again 24 days from now on Selection Sunday. 

Hey Nineteen Power Rankings

Reminder: My rankings are not solely about whom I think is “best.” This is a weekly encapsulation of the 19 hottest, most successful and/or most *interesting* teams, combining team quality with win quality but also having no shame for recency bias and rewarding significant winning streaks. All records shown are vs. D-I competition.