One of only five matchups between ranked teams will take place in Nashville this week when No. 25 Vanderbilt hosts No. 5 Texas. Yes, you read that correctly. The Commodores (5-2) are ranked for the first since 2013 and enter the week on a three-game winning streak that includes victories over Alabama and Kentucky. Texas (6-1), for its part, is hoping to bounce back after suffering its first loss of the season last week to Georgia.
Vanderbilt is looking for its second win over an AP-ranked top five team this season. The Commodores entered the year 0-60 all time in those situations.
Texas enters this game on an eight-game road winning streak. It’s the longest active streak in the FBS and the best road stretch for the program since 2008 to 2010. The Longhorns hope to avoid back-to-back losses for the first time since 2021 — Steve Sarkisian’s debut season with the program.
There weren’t many people who had this circled as a critical SEC game entering the year. But it’s important to Texas’ playoff hopes and provides Vanderbilt a springboard to legitimately enter the SEC title race.
Texas vs. Vanderbilt: Need to know
Texas’ QB Situation Under the Microscope: When Steve Sarkisian benched Quinn Ewers in favor of Arch Manning last Saturday against Georgia, he opened a Pandora’s box. It doesn’t matter that Sarkisian named Ewers the team’s starter moving forward after the game concluded. It doesn’t matter if the offense worked better with Ewers than Manning under center. Now, Ewers versus Manning — arguably the most famous name in college football — is going to be a conversation every week.
That starts Saturday in Nashville where Ewers will look to reestablish both his stranglehold over the QB1 job in Austin but also his draft stock. Ewers, who was the Heisman favorite on sports betting apps before suffering an injury against UTSA in Week 3, is just a combined 45-for-72 with three touchdowns against two interceptions since his return two games ago.
Perhaps a Vanderbilt defense that ranks 86th nationally in opposing passer rating can be a salve for Ewers’ recent woes.
Vanderbilt Plays Everyone Close: An interesting wrinkle to track with Vanderbilt this season is they’ve played up and down to their competition depending on the week. Every game against FBS competition has come down to 10 points or fewer. This includes wins over Alabama, Virginia Tech and Kentucky — plus an overtime loss to Missouri. It also includes a loss to Georgia State and a closer-than-they’d-like 10-point win over Ball State last week.
Vanderbilt games tend to be close for a few reasons:
1. Vanderbilt controls the clock, ranking 14th nationally in time of possession. The Commodores tend to have a lot of successful down-to-down plays (28th nationally in success rate) and are well above average on third downs (eighth nationally). That combination keeps them on the field.
2. Vanderbilt usually wins the turnover battle ranking 17th nationally in turnover margin.
Those are interesting an foil for Texas, which has been excellent countering those strengths. The Longhorns boast a top-10 defense nationally on third down and have forced the 14th-most turnovers in the FBS.
A Rare Matchup: Fun fact: Vanderbilt is the only SEC team Texas has played multiple times and don’t have all-time winning record against. The Commodores are 8-3-1 against the Longhorns.This does, however, come with the caveat that these programs haven’t met in 96 years.
How to watch Texas vs. Vanderbilt live
Date: Saturday, Oct. 26 | Time: 4:15 p.m. ET
Location: FirstBank Stadium – Nashville, Tennessee
TV: SEC Network | Live Stream: Fubo
Texas vs. Georgia prediction, picks
This game comes down to how the Commodores manage the clock. If they can produce long drives and confuse Texas’ speedy front seven with misdirection, this game will be close. If there are a couple of three-and-outs by Vanderbilt, it could get out of control quick as the Commodores’ pass defense has struggled this year. But give me Vanderbilt to at least cover the betting line. They’ve stepped up in every big moment this season. Why would that stop Saturday? Pick: Vanderbilt +18.5
All odds via Caesars Sportsbook. Check out the latest Caesars promo code to get in the game.
SportsLine’s proven computer model is calling for five outright upsets in Week 9 of college football. Visit SportsLine now to see them all, plus get spread picks for every game from the model that simulates each game 10,000 times.
