Joe Burrow’s Bengals are clearly the most dangerous potential AFC wild-card team, and the numbers prove it

One team looms as the most dangerous threat in the AFC wild-card race. Fortunately for the four division leaders, the Cincinnati Bengals’ playoff hopes are slim with two games left in the 2024 regular season.

They need to win out — which would include beating the Broncos in Cincinnati in Week 17, then have Denver lose in Week 18 while hosting a likely resting Chiefs team. Also, they’ll need the Colts and Dolphins to each lose one of their final two contests.  

If all that happens, the Bengals are in the playoffs as the No. 7 seed, and they have the characteristics to spring an upset in the opening round, and maybe even go on an Eli Manning-like Giants run toward a Super Bowl. 

And this isn’t pure speculation or feel — the theory bears out in the advanced numbers. 

Since the playoff expanded to its current structure of seven teams with the No. 1 seed getting a bye, there’ve been five No. 6 or No. 7 seeds who’ve won on wild-card weekend. 

Here’s how those teams fared in EPA per play in non-garbage time scenarios (win probability between 10-90%) during their respective regular seasons:

The five-team sample indicates a high-quality offense far outweighs a stingy defensive in importance to spring an upset in the playoffs.

For perspective on those averages — the average offensive EPA per play (0.0716) aligns closely with the Buccaneers’ current mark of 0.084, ranking 10th in the league entering Week 17.

That defensive average is closest to the Rams, who with an EPA per play allowed of 0.006 rank 15th in the NFL. 

And would you look at that — the average point differential is essentially identical to that of the Bengals right now. 

Looking at a more micro level, Bengals quarterback Joe Burrow is having an MVP-caliber season. He’s third in passer rating at 108.5, has the second-most Big-Time Throws (32) and eighth-highest Big-Time Throw rate (5.4%), and is tied with Patrick Mahomes for the seventh-lowest Turnover-Worthy Play rate (2.1%). 

Ja’Marr Chase is 123 yards ahead of Justin Jefferson for the league-lead in receiving yards, and Tee Higgins is averaging the most catches per game (5.8) and second-most yards per game (72.7) in his NFL career. 

In short, the Bengals are dynamic offensively, with an elite-level quarterback, an elite-level No. 1 receiver and an elite-level No. 2 wideout. Nothing is more threatening in today’s NFL than that combination. 

And they boast this — a legitimate NFL Defensive Player of the Year-worthy campaign from Trey Hendrickson. He has the most sacks (14) and second-most pressures (72) in football.

So, elite quarterback, elite No. 1 and No. 2 receivers and elite edge rusher. Frightening. 

Plus, we know turnovers can mask an otherwise porous defense. The 2023 Packers were even in turnover margin entering the playoffs a season ago. That 2022 Giants team was +3. The 2021 49ers were -4, the 2020 Rams were -3 and the Browns in 2020 were +5 — all eerily similar to where the Bengals are currently at (+4) entering Week 17. 

Lastly, let’s look at how Cincinnati has fared against potential playoff opponents, because matchups matter. The 2022 Giants, probably the least-threatening of the teams in this sample, got a fortunate draw of the clearly flawed division-winning 2022 Vikings in that first round. 

• Chiefs (No. 1 seed): They’ve beaten the Chiefs in Arrowhead in the AFC title game, and in Week 2 of this season, were a bang-bang defensive pass interference away from winning on the road in Kansas City again. 
• Ravens (No. 3 seed): They lost both games to the Ravens this season by a combined score of 76-72. The first loss, a 41-38 defeat, featured a late fourth-quarter field goal miss by Evan McPherson and a game-winning kick by Justin Tucker. In the 35-34 loss in Week 10, Burrow failed to connect with tight end Tanner Hudson on what would’ve been the game-sealing two-point conversion.
• Texans (No. 4 seed): Last year, the Bengals were narrowly beaten by the Texans at home 30-27. 
• Bills (No. 2 seed): As for their most likely wild-card opponent, the Bills, the Bengals beat Buffalo last season in Cincinnati, 24-18. They also have a 27-10 divisional round win over the Bills in Orchard Park, New York, on their resume. 

I feel confident concluding with this: No higher-seeded team wants to see Burrow, Chase, Higgins and Co. in these playoffs.