The Las Vegas Raiders have been one of the early-season surprises through the first three weeks, jumping out to a perfect 3-0 record. That includes a 35-27 win over the Saints in New Orleans, where they scored 19 unanswered points in the second half to pull off the comeback. Already, they’ve matched their win total from last season’s 3-14 campaign and have made some history in the process.
They are just the second team in NFL history to start 3-0 after consecutive 13-plus loss seasons, joining the 1980 San Francisco 49ers. They are also just the third team in the past 20 years to start 3-0 after winning three or fewer games the prior year (2006 Saints and 2013 Chiefs).
For our conversation here, we’ll point out that Las Vegas is the fourth team in the Common Draft Era to start 3-0 after drafting first overall the previous spring. Lost in the shuffle of this stellar start to 2026 is the biggest question that loomed over the organization — and still does — when they first embarked on it:
When will we see Fernando Mendoza take over as QB1?
The Raiders selected Mendoza with the No. 1 overall pick at the 2026 NFL Draft after the Heisman Trophy winner put together one of the greatest seasons in college football history, leading the Indiana Hoosiers to a perfect season and a national championship. He is the unquestioned future in Las Vegas, but this 3-0 start does appear to kick the eventual ascension down the road, at least momentarily.
Kirk Cousins has been lights out
The biggest reason why there hasn’t been a clamoring for Mendoza to step into the big seat is that Kirk Cousins has been on fire. Coming out of Sunday’s Week 3 action, Cousins is tied for the most passing touchdowns (9) among qualified quarterbacks (min. 50 pass attempts). He’s also eighth in the NFL in passer rating (107.2) and EPA per dropback (0.18).
Cousins joined Tom Brady (2015 and 2021) as the only players in NFL history age 38 or older to have at least nine passing touchdowns through the first three games of the season. He also tied a Raiders franchise record for the most consecutive games with three or more passing touchdowns (three). And he did most of that without his go-to pass-catching option in tight end Brock Bowers, who made his season debut in Week 3 and caught 10 of his 13 targets.
Even if the Raiders found a way to still be 3-0, had Cousins struggled through these first three weeks, there would be a groundswell to elevate Mendoza. Because he’s essentially been a top-10 quarterback in the NFL, Cousins has quieted that talk and removed any pressure on first-year head coach Klint Kubiak to make a move under center.
Upcoming schedule could quickly change the narrative
The Raiders couldn’t have asked for a better start to the season, but things can change in an instant in the NFL.
While they should get credit for starting the year 3-0 (especially that win over the Saints on Sunday), their opening slate hasn’t exactly been a murderer’s row of top-tier NFL talent. The Dolphins, who they soundly defeated in Week 1, might end up being the worst team in the NFL when the dust settles on the 2026 season. Then, in Week 2, they took down a Chargers team that is 0-3 and one of the biggest disappointments of the year. Even New Orleans is young, with a quarterback in his first season as the full-time starter, and he turned the ball over on his final three possessions in Week 3.
Again, credit to the Raiders for taking advantage of those opportunities put in front of them, but the road ahead is a bit more difficult. That starts with a home matchup against the 3-0 Kansas City Chiefs, who are currently road favorites over Las Vegas.
Here’s a look at the Raiders’ next eight games:
Las Vegas’ matchups against the Patriots (Week 5) and Jets (Week 8) are its most winnable games over this stretch, but both are on the road. Even if you give the Raiders wins in those spots, they likely won’t be favored in any of those remaining matchups, potentially setting up a 2-6 skid. That’d bring them to 5-6 before traveling to Cleveland to face the Browns in Week 12, before a bye.
If they are entering that bye week at .500 on the year (or worse), there will be chatter to bring in Mendoza if they haven’t already.
Identifying pockets where Mendoza could debut
Ruling out a possible injury to Cousins that would thrust Mendoza into the starting role, I do think this hot start could buy the veteran some leeway to hold onto the job for the foreseeable future.
That said, the earliest a change could make sense would be that Week 8 matchup at the New York Jets. If the bottom falls out from under the Raiders and they drop their next four games and fall under .500, the tone of the season changes and Kubiak could look to the top pick against the Jets to turn the tide.
After that, the Week 14 home matchup against the Los Angeles Chargers coming out of the bye week would be another window for Mendoza to rise to QB1. If the Raiders fall out of contention by that point and/or Cousins has fallen off, it’d be wise to pivot to the young quarterback to get him reps.
If Las Vegas is still vying for playoff positioning, however, and wants to keep riding with Cousins, rubber could meet the road in Week 15 when they host the Denver Broncos. That game could very well determine playoff positioning if things remain as they stand. If the Raiders fall on the wrong side of that matchup, giving Mendoza the final three starts beginning with a home matchup against the Tennessee Titans in Week 16 would be the prudent move. At that point, the focus shifts from contending to building for 2027, with Mendoza as the centerpiece.
Is it OK if Mendoza doesn’t play in 2026?
The short answer is yes. It’s totally fine if Mendoza barely sees the field over his rookie season. While teams have largely played their first-round quarterbacks from the get-go, there are many ways to skin a cat. Kubiak has spoken at length about taking a slow approach when developing a young quarterback, and we’ve seen that work in the past. Most notably, Patrick Mahomes played just one game as a rookie, starting the regular-season finale against the Broncos during the 2017 campaign. Before that, he sat behind Alex Smith. I think Mahomes turned out just fine. Of course, that doesn’t mean that Mendoza is earmarked for the same career trajectory, but it’s just an example of a player becoming a star despite not seeing the field much as a rookie.
