College football Week 5 kicks off Thursday night with the Western Kentucky Hilltoppers visiting the New Mexico State Aggies for a Conference USA opener between struggling teams. Western Kentucky (1-3) lost three in a row to start the 2026 college football season before routing Mercyhurst 52-7 last weekend. The Aggies (1-3) also have a convincing 51-14 win against Mercyhurst but have lost to Florida State, Hawaii and rival New Mexico. We’re digging into Western Kentucky vs. New Mexico State and highlighting some of college football bets you can make at top sports betting apps for Thursday’s game. Bet on Western Kentucky vs. New Mexico State in Week 5 at DraftKings and get $150 in bonus bets when you spend $5+:
Thursday’s kickoff at Aggie Memorial Stadium is set for 8 p.m. ET on Thursday, Oct. 1. The Aggies are favored by 2.5 points at home in the latest Western Kentucky vs. New Mexico State odds at DraftKings Sportsbook, with the Over/Under for total points set at 57.5. We’re looking at the Western Kentucky vs. New Mexico State odds and offering insights from the SportsLine Projection Model, which simulates every FBS game 10,000 times.
The model enters Week 5 on a 32-24 run on all top-rated college football picks at the best betting sites, returning nearly $600 for $100 players. Anybody following its picks on college football betting sites could have seen strong returns.
Western Kentucky vs. New Mexico State betting odds (via DraftKings)
| Western Kentucky vs. New Mexico St. money line: | Western Kentucky +110, New Mexico St. -130 |
| Western Kentucky vs. New Mexico St. Over/Under: | 57.5 (Over -105, Under -115) |
| Western Kentucky vs. New Mexico St. spread:Â | New Mexico State -2.5 |
Western Kentucky vs. New Mexico State betting preview
The Hilltoppers are hoping an ambitious non-conference schedule puts them in good position heading into Conference USA play. They faced top national title contender Georgia and reigning national champion Indiana in back-to-back weeks, and it wasn’t pretty. The Bulldogs crushed WKU 70-20, then the Hoosiers cruised to a 38-0 victory. The Hilltoppers then gained a little confidence in the win against the FCS Lakers. Hilltoppers quarterback Rodney Tisdale Jr. threw for 309 yards and four touchdowns against Mercyhurst, completing passes to 12 different receivers. Western Kentucky’s only non-scoring drive in the first half came as the clock expired, and the only one in the second ended on a fumble deep in Mercyhurst territory. The Hilltoppers outgained the Lakers 413-172. Still, they are last in Conference USA in total yards per game (343.5) while the Aggies are second (414.5). Both are in the bottom half of the conference defensively, with WKU second-to-last in yards allowed per game (439.0) and NMSU is seventh in the 10-team league (376.5). The Hilltoppers have won two of three meetings between the teams, including a 35-16 road victory last November.Â
On the other side, New Mexico State opened with a 34-17 loss at Florida State before getting right against Mercyhurst. Then things went wrong again in their past two games, with quarterback Trey Hedden putting up solid numbers but making some big mistakes. The junior has five TD passes and five interceptions, but he has 887 passing yards in the four games. Hedden struggled against New Mexico, so Adam Damante took over and threw for 157 yards. Running back James Jones is also off to a hot start, as he had 112 rushing yards against the Lobos and has 355 for the season, with two touchdowns. He is averaging 6.2 yards per carry. Receiver TK King is averaging 14.7 yards on his 18 receptions and has also scored twice. The Aggies had 400 total yards in the Rio Grande Rivalry but turned the ball over twice and gave up 427 yards, including 253 on the ground. The Hilltoppers outgained the Aggies 429-178 in last year’s meeting, with Tisdale throwing for 301 yards and four touchdowns.
New Mexico State is 8-8 against the spread since the start of last season, going 4-4 ATS at home and 3-2 ATS as a home underdog. The Aggies are 7-9 to the Over in the same span, with the Under hitting in five of eight home games. The Hilltoppers are 9-7 to the Over since the 2025 season started, including 5-4 O/U on the road. They are 12-5 against the spread, including 7-3 ATS as a favorite. Use the FanDuel promo code to get $250 in bonus bets after betting $5+ for five days on college football, including Western Kentucky vs. New Mexico State:
Western Kentucky vs. New Mexico State picks, prediction
New Mexico State money line (-130)
The SportsLine model has a rare “A” grade on the Aggies to win, as they are doing so in 66% of simulations while covering the 2.5-point spread 63% of the time. Neither of these defenses has been very good, but the Aggies offense appears to be much better. Western Kentucky’s schedule surely skews the numbers, but it has given up a ton of points, and while beating up on Mercyhurst probably felt good for both teams, those games didn’t prove much. The Hilltoppers’ three losses are by an average of 52 points. The Aggies’ biggest loss was by 24 to the Lobos last week, and their average losing margin this season is 17 points. Jones has two 100-yard rushing games so far and should take advantage of a Hilltoppers defense that is by far the worst in Conference USA against the run. WKU yields 220.5 rushing yards per game, 30 more than any other team.
