Bowl projections: USC replaces Oregon in CFP bracket, Ohio State and Texas hold firm

Only two weeks into college football season, we already have our first major, playoff-shaking result.

There’s no nice way to put this — Oregon’s in trouble after Saturday’s stunning loss at Oklahoma State. Despite keeping Dante Moore away from the NFL Draft and investing significantly in talent retention and acquisition defensively, Oregon is not the team most assumed the Ducks would be after two games, at least not yet. 

Replacing both coordinators has proved difficult for Dan Lanning, whose winning streak over unranked teams at the program is over, as is the Cowboys’ 21-game losing skid against FBS competition. From here, Oregon will have to win 10 games to be in the at-large conversation, and that’s no guarantee, considering USC, Ohio State, Michigan and Washington are left on the slate, among others.

The Ohio State-Texas showdown offered an early glimpse of which preseason elite has the advantage in September, but these are two loaded teams we’ll see more of inside the top 10 as the season progresses. Both play grueling schedules, and the comeback win for the Longhorns gives them quite a card to play if they find themselves in an at-large CFP predicament a few months from now.

Boise State stays put this week as our current Group of Six playoff favorite after dismantling Memphis with a dominant second half. With a favorable Mountain West schedule remaining and their two toughest games behind them, the Broncos will be a heavy favorite to win out from here.

College Football Playoff projections 

First round 

Don’t see your team? Check out Brad Crawford’s complete bowl projections for every game.

Projected College Football Playoff field breakdown

No. 1 Miami (ACC champion): Driven by the Heisman frontrunner at quarterback and Malachi Toney’s brilliance so far, the Hurricanes might be untouchable until November when they head to South Bend for what could be college football’s game of the year against Notre Dame. It’s up to Mario Cristobal to keep this team focused on the ultimate prize and allow no let-ups in the ACC.

No. 2 Georgia (SEC champion): Fourteen different Bulldogs have scored touchdowns in the first two weeks, good enough for 133 total points during wins over Tennessee State and WKU. Gunner Stockton’s completion rate sits at 87.5%, and he leads the SEC with eight touchdown passes. There’s a lot to like so far from the defending SEC champions.

No. 3 Ohio State (Big Ten champion): Eight new defensive starters and the same old elite look out of Matt Patricia’s unit — before Texas ran off 21 unanswered points to shock Ohio State on Saturday night. We’re still penciling in the Buckeyes as the projected Big Ten champion after Oregon’s slip, but their margin for error shrinks a bit if they don’t get there with the auto-bid.

No. 4 Notre Dame: Championship mindset. That’s the mentality for the Fighting Irish coming out of another easy win in September. BYU, Miami and SMU are the three season-defining contests; each of those squads are currently slotted inside this projected top 12. Before we start calling out the cupcakes on Notre Dame’s schedule, just know there are several must-watch matchups to play that will determine this team’s overall worth and final ranking.

No. 5 Texas: Finally, Steve Sarkisian has conquered his kryptonite after coming from behind to beat the Buckeyes. There’s still six nationally ranked opponents on the Longhorns’ schedule this season, which means plenty of opportunities to build a playoff-worthy resume even with multiple losses. But after taking out Ohio State, this is the biggest win of Sarkisian’s tenure and should push the Longhorns into Sunday’s new top-4 of the AP Poll.

No. 6 Indiana: Lee Beebe Jr. and Turbo Richard each eclipsed 100 yards rushing, and the Hoosiers got their regulars out of there quickly in Week 2. Three more likely lopsided matchups are coming before the first challenge of the campaign, a trip to Nebraska on Oct. 10. As long as Indiana stays healthy, it looks like the second-best team in the conference behind the Buckeyes. Perhaps USC will have a say in that conversation since Lincoln Riley’s team plays both this season.

No. 7 Texas Tech (Big 12 champion): This Red Raiders squad doesn’t have the same menacing look as last season’s behemoth in the Big 12. That’s going to be a tight race with a handful of teams capable of dethroning the champions and getting the auto-bid to the bracket. Texas Tech hosts Houston in a Friday night special up next in a critical conference opener for both. Quarterback Will Hammond remains the starter, but the addition of Tommy Castellanos has given Joey McGuire a new offensive wrinkle who poses a threat.

No. 8 LSU: No matter what Lane Kiffin told his team this week about Louisiana Tech, he wasn’t going to get the same want-to from the Tigers as they had in the opener against Clemson with the trip to Ole Miss looming. Sam Leavitt shook off multiple mistakes, including a 100-yard pick-six, and LSU lived to see another day with SEC play set to begin.

No. 9 USC: The Trojans have passed the eye test entering next week’s Big Ten opener at Rutgers. Outside of letting their foot off the gas in the fourth quarter of Week 1 against San Jose State, USC has shown few weaknesses, and the nation’s top-ranked signing class is already paying immediate returns. USC replaces Oregon this week as the Big Ten’s third playoff team. Those two play soon.

No. 10 BYU: Will the Big 12 be a two-bid conference this season? The SEC and Big Ten will have a say, along with Utah, Oklahoma State, Houston and others itching to get a piece of the two perceived frontrunners at the top of the league. Bear Bachmeier has found a WR1 in Kyler Kasper, who had two second-half touchdown receptions to close out Arizona.

No. 11 SMU: Despite the short week after winning Monday night at Florida State, the Mustangs disposed of UC Davis behind 337 yards passing and five touchdowns from Kevin Jennings. SMU’s offense looked a bit more polished its second time out with no turnovers and 42 first-half points. The Mustangs’ battle at Louisville in Week 3 determines which team has the inside track to play Miami in the ACC Championship Game at season’s end unless Virginia has a say.

No. 12 Boise State: The Broncos softened Oregon’s jaw last week in a near win and now, Boise State has its first win over a previously unblemished Memphis team under Charles Huff. After trailing 20-17 at halftime, the Group of Six’s new CFP lead went. 77 yards on their first possession of the third quarter for a touchdown, then returned a punt for a score via Cam Bates to take a commanding lead.