The big question dominating French politics – can the far-right really win the French presidency?
As Marine Le Pen arrived at her election night rally I asked her if she was feeling confident. A nod and wry smile was her reply.
This is Le Pen’s third and final run at the presidency and she’s never come as close as this. It’s now or never for her – and many in her party feel this is their moment.
President Macron is ahead but the numbers are certainly within the margin of error.
As history has taught us with Brexit and Donald Trump, a far-right president is now possible in France. Many here are comparing this election to those surprise results in the UK and US.
Le Pen has softened her image, played a smart campaign and it seems to be working.
Le Pen has ‘softened’ her image to appeal to a broader range of voters
By making the cost of living her central theme, she appealed to a broader church of voters. This is the issue French people care about the most.
Moving away from her previous anti-immigration, anti-Islam focus has helped to detoxify her as a candidate.
She sought to distance herself from Vladimir Putin, who she’s praised in the past – even during the war in Ukraine, her connections with Russia haven’t dented her popularity.
In the Paris streets people now tell me she speaks their language.
Critics warn she’s changed her style but not her far-right values. This time though, Le Pen appears much more palatable to many voters. And those voters are far less predictable.
The question now is what supporters of the other 10 candidates will do with their votes in round two. Normally there’s a pact among parties to vote together in the second round against the far-right.
Jean-Luc Melenchon, who had the third-largest share of the vote in this first round, told his supporters not to give Le Pen a single vote. But I’ve met Melenchon supporters who’ve already told me they would vote for Le Pen in a run-off.
Speaking to voters, there’s an impression French people are looking for change.
France feels in uncharted election territory.
