Texas vs. Tennessee odds, prediction: Week 4 college football picks for Saturday

The No. 1 Texas Longhorns face their first major road test of the season when they head to Knoxville to face the No. 14 Tennessee Volunteers on Saturday. It’s the SEC opener for both 3-0 teams. Arch Manning and a Longhorns offense averaging well over 400 yards per game face freshman Faizon Brandon and a Vols attack averaging nearly 300 rush yards per outing. These proud programs have never faced off in a regular-season game, and haven’t met in a bowl game since Jan. 1, 1969. Texas running back Hollywood Smothers was upgraded from questionable to probable on Friday evening. Claim the latest Polymarket promo code CBSSPORTS to get a $50 bonus after $10 in trades:

Kickoff is set for noon ET at Neyland Stadium in Knoxville, Tenn. The Longhorns are 5.5-point favorites in the latest Texas vs. Tennessee odds. The over/under for total points is 54.5. Before making any Tennessee vs. Texas picks, check out the Texas vs. Tennessee predictions from the SportsLine Projection Model. 

The model simulates every FBS game 10,000 times. It is off to a profitable 22-19 start on all top-rated college football picks at betting sites so far this season, and it has been upgraded for the 2026 season to better factor in the transfer portal. Anybody following its picks on college football betting sites could have seen strong returns. 

Now, the model has set its sights on Texas vs. Tennessee. You can visit SportsLine now to see the picks. Here are the FBS college football odds and trends for Tennessee vs. Texas:

New to sports trading? Visit our Kalshi promo code review and get a $55 bonus after $25+ in trades with the Kalshi promo code CBSSPORTS55:

Top Texas vs. Tennessee predictions

After simulating Texas vs. Tennessee 10,000 times, the SportsLine model is going Under (54.5 points) at betting apps. The Under has hit in the Longhorns’ last two games, including the 24-23 showdown with the Buckeyes (50.5). Manning has passed for 664 yards seven seven TDs as the Longhorns average 37.7 ppg. Tennessee’s offense is producing 510 ypg. Brandon has six TDs without throwing an INT while the RBs are averaging nearly 6.7 yards per attempt. 

But the defenses have done their job as well. Texas is allowing only 109 rush yards per game, offering the Vols a challenge to keep their overwhelming rush attack going. Tennessee is giving up just 151 pass yards per game. 

The SportsLine’s projection model simulations average out to Manning throwing for 257 yards and 1.7 TDs, with Raleek Brown rushing for 71 more yards. Brandon holds his own with 245 yards and 1.4 TDs, with DeSean Bishop going for 83 more on the ground. The model projects 52 combined points as the Under hits in 54% of simulations. See the model’s spread and money-line picks at SportsLine.

How to make Tennessee vs. Texas picks

In addition to going Under on the total, the model also says one side of the spread hits in more than 50% of simulations. You can only get the pick at SportsLine. 

So who wins Texas vs. Tennessee, and which side of the spread hits more than 50% of the time? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the spread to jump on, all from the advanced model that’s on a 22-19 run on top-rated CFB money-line picks, and find out.