The US state department resumed publishing monthly visa statistics last week after an 11-month hiatus, revealing F-1 visa issuance plummeted by 34% from 2024 to 2025 – a drop which is causing alarm among experts.
The data revealed the sharpest decline among Indian students, with visa issuance among this cohort decreasing by 76% on 2023 levels and 60% compared to 2024.
“The scale is shocking; the direction is not,” Boston College professor Chris Glass told The PIE News.
“The younger, more populist New Right – or ‘post-liberal’ – wing of the MAGA movement increasingly views OPT and H-1B as threats to American workers rather than instruments of talent policy, leaving India – the largest, graduate-driven source country – the most exposed,” Glass explained.
Fanta Aw, CEO of NAFSA: Association of International Educators agreed that the marked decline among Indian students was “likely because Indian families tend to be price-sensitive and very focused on pathways to work after graduation”.
Aw cautioned that visa issuance declines should not be interpreted “as a one-for-one reduction in international student enrolment”. But she said the data was evidence of the “formidable” visa barriers facing international students, including the processing pause of 2025, the expanded visa ban, lengthy visa appointment wait times, and processing delays.
While the figures do not show precisely to what extent declines were driven by international students turning away from the US versus their visas being rejected, monthly comparisons highlight the profound impact of the administration’s visa interview freeze which lasted for nearly all of June 2025 and caused delays throughout the summer.
Strikingly, the data shows less than half the number of F-1 visas were issued in June 2025 compared to June 2024, followed by a 40% drop in July.
Elsewhere, visa issuance dropped last year for all but one of America’s top sending nations, with South Korean applicants seeing a 45% fall compared to 2024 and mainland China recording a 37% decline.
The figures come as nearly 60% of colleges reported declining international applications for 2026, with NAFSA estimating the widely anticipated contraction will cost the US economy $3.4 billion.
But Glass noted that further declines were in line with the administration’s stated policy aims.
“When the 2025 National Security Strategy rejects ‘global talent’ that undercuts American workers, and Science: A New Golden Age describes reliance on foreign students as a labour-market and security risk, the administration is likely to view the resulting decline as progress toward a policy objective,” he said.
Yet sector leaders continue to highlight the damaging consequences of such policies, which Aw said would cost billions in lost economic activity, put tens of thousands of American jobs at risk, and damage the nation’s competitiveness and innovation.
She called on the administration to prioritise visa interview availability for international students and exchange visitors, and preserve Optional Practical Training (OPT), while a rumoured $100,000 fee for the program is currently under White House review.
What’s more, Aw urged Congress to pass legislation to restore duration of status (D/S), following a cross-sector coalition suing the government over its new rule ending D/S, set to take effect from September 15, 2026.
