National Council on Problem Gambling President Derek Longmeier said prediction markets are functionally gambling, even as the organization defends the membership of Kalshi, which donated $2 million and joined NCPG in June.
Longmeier laid out the group’s position in a statement released Tuesday, arguing that regardless of how regulators legally classify prediction markets, the products can expose users to the same risks tied to traditional gambling. The statement arrived amid mounting pressure over Kalshi’s NCPG membership, which prompted Jaime Costello, the council’s director of programs, to resign immediately after the statement was published.
A Membership That Splintered the Organization
NCPG created a new financial-services subcategory specifically to accommodate Kalshi, a structural change that several affiliates say blurred the line between harm-reduction outreach and endorsement. Nevada’s chapter ended its affiliation with NCPG in August; executive director Trey Delap told the Nevada Current the dispute reflected a fundamental difference in how a problem-gambling organization should respond to emerging gambling risks, not simply a disagreement about one company.
Regulatory boards in Michigan and Ohio also cut ties with NCPG after it admitted Kalshi. The Massachusetts Gaming Commission weighed leaving but ultimately said it would keep monitoring the situation, while the Evergreen Council on Problem Gambling ended a 35-year affiliation with NCPG over the episode.
Kalshi and rival Polymarket continue to describe their event contracts as financial instruments rather than sports betting products, a distinction now playing out in court. New Jersey asked the Supreme Court to take up the underlying jurisdictional question earlier this month, adding a federal dimension to a fight that has so far played out state by state and inside advocacy groups.
Longmeier Points to Polling
Longmeier said NCPG’s position is backed by public opinion, citing a Harris Poll conducted on the council’s behalf that found 85% of Americans agree people can develop unhealthy or addictive behaviors tied to prediction-market platforms. The same poll found 84% believe those platforms should face consumer protections similar to gambling, according to Longmeier, who added that Americans are experiencing real financial, emotional, and relationship consequences tied to the products.
Neutral on Legality, Not on Harm
NCPG maintains it takes no position on whether prediction markets should be legal, framing its mission instead around preventing gambling-related harm wherever it surfaces. That framing hasn’t satisfied the regulators and affiliates that walked away, several of which argue that accepting Kalshi’s money while calling its products gambling sends a mixed signal regardless of the disclaimer. The dispute has intensified alongside broader scrutiny of prediction markets’ sports offerings, which has drawn state gaming regulators and now the Supreme Court into a fight over how these platforms should ultimately be defined.
